BREXIT

[YamFazFan]

Believe it or not YamFazFan actually stands for...YouAintMakingFolkAveZestForAnotherrefereNdum

[nick crisp]

. Useless Carney with his failed forward guidance proves he knows nothing

You mean Mark Carney who graduated from Harvard with a degree with high honours in economics, before postgraduate studies at Oxford where he received masters and doctoral degrees. Then of course Goldman Sachs and the Bank of Canada before his current job.
Where are the Leave 'experts'  coming up with convincing forecasts and figures?

Pfft. The world has lost count of how many times he has u-turned on his forecasts.

[mtread]

So........ where's the Leave experts and their forecasts then?

[YamFazFan]

Why would Leave need to be making any forecasts?. They won the referendum and we should be getting on with honouring that.


I can fully understand why Remain are engaging in 'Project Fear #2'. They're desperate to stop Brexit and overturn the democratic result because it didn't go their way.

[nick crisp]

So........ where's the Leave experts and their forecasts then?

Forecasts and predictions are for Remainers who have nothing better to do. Leavers just want to get out and get on with running our country.

[fazersharp]

Mark Carn-do-maths has quietly shelved his "forward guidance" briefs.Here is a list of words used by Carn-do and his side kicks in his news conference.
Probability
Possibility
Likely
Assumption
Balance
Suggest
Forecast
Potential
Deviation
Dynamic
Could
Path
Scenario
Differing
Judge
Case study
Concrete
Think
Eventual
Adjustment
Leverage
Determination
adjustment
Path

All you have to do to be an economist is to always use these words - preferably all of them and you can talk for 30 mins without actually saying anything at all. Its like listening to a charlatan clairvoyant asking vague questions until they hit on something.  I have zero respect for economists especially when the BBC interview that convicted jailed fraudster Viki. 

[mtread]

He's got a doctorate in Economics for christsake. They don't dish those out for nothing.


There are no Leave forecasts because they know the results are very bad. Either that or they have trouble with 2+2. So they just criticise to deflect the truth.


Here's part of Carney's entry from Wikipedia. I suppose that's all lies too?  :b



''The epoch-making feature of his tenure as Governor of the Bank of Canada remains the decision to cut the overnight rate by 50 basis points in March 2008, only one month after his appointment. While the European Central Bank delivered a rate increase in July 2008, Carney anticipated the leveraged-loan crisis would trigger global contagion. When policy rates in Canada hit the effective lower-bound, the central bank combatted the crisis with the non-standard monetary tool: "conditional commitment" in April 2009 to hold the policy rate for at least one year, in a boost to domestic credit conditions and market confidence. Output and employment began to recover from mid-2009, in part thanks to monetary stimulus. The Canadian economy outperformed those of its G7 peers during the crisis, and Canada was the first G7 nation to have both its GDP and employment recover to pre-crisis level''

[fazersharp]

Sounds just like when Gordon Brown took all the credit for the boom times.

[fazersharp]

There are no Leave forecasts because they know the results are very bad. Either that or they have trouble with 2+2. So they just criticise to deflect the truth.

If you listen to his news conference this week he doesn't say anything good or bad, the words I have posted are all from that conference, and- just like all economist speak they are  careful so they never say anything definite - just like a clairvoyant bulshitting giving vague responses that can cover everything.

[nick crisp]

He's got a doctorate in Economics for christsake. They don't dish those out for nothing.


There are no Leave forecasts because they know the results are very bad. Either that or they have trouble with 2+2. So they just criticise to deflect the truth.


Here's part of Carney's entry from Wikipedia. I suppose that's all lies too?  :b



''The epoch-making feature of his tenure as Governor of the Bank of Canada remains the decision to cut the overnight rate by 50 basis points in March 2008, only one month after his appointment. While the European Central Bank delivered a rate increase in July 2008, Carney anticipated the leveraged-loan crisis would trigger global contagion. When policy rates in Canada hit the effective lower-bound, the central bank combatted the crisis with the non-standard monetary tool: "conditional commitment" in April 2009 to hold the policy rate for at least one year, in a boost to domestic credit conditions and market confidence. Output and employment began to recover from mid-2009, in part thanks to monetary stimulus. The Canadian economy outperformed those of its G7 peers during the crisis, and Canada was the first G7 nation to have both its GDP and employment recover to pre-crisis level''

Even a broken clock is right twice a day 


His average however isn't very good. Not least his forecast of instant disaster immediately following the referendum.

[fazersharp]

[quote author=mtread link=topic=24678.msg288136#msg288136 date=1543586092]
He's got a doctorate in Economics for christsake. They don't dish those out for nothing.


There are no Leave forecasts because they know the results are very bad. Either that or they have trouble with 2+2. So they just criticise to deflect the truth.


Here's part of Carney's entry from Wikipedia. I suppose that's all lies too?  :b



''The epoch-making feature of his tenure as Governor of the Bank of Canada remains the decision to cut the overnight rate by 50 basis points in March 2008, only one month after his appointment. While the European Central Bank delivered a rate increase in July 2008, Carney anticipated the leveraged-loan crisis would trigger global contagion. When policy rates in Canada hit the effective lower-bound, the central bank combatted the crisis with the non-standard monetary tool: "conditional commitment" in April 2009 to hold the policy rate for at least one year, in a boost to domestic credit conditions and market confidence. Output and employment began to recover from mid-2009, in part thanks to monetary stimulus. The Canadian economy outperformed those of its G7 peers during the crisis, and Canada was the first G7 nation to have both its GDP and employment recover to pre-crisis level''

Even a broken clock is right twice a day 


His average however isn't very good. Not least his forecast of instant disaster immediately following the referendum.
[/quote]
He said what he was told to just like Obama who gave the game away by saying "the UK would be back of the queue" - when an American would not say queue - they would of said "line". Scripted and written for him and not off the cuff.     

[mtread]

His average however isn't very good. Not least his forecast of instant disaster immediately following the referendum.

What you mean the £ isn't at a 31 year low against the $ ! Thank goodness :rolleyes


Here's the Bank of England 's forecast he was referring to. The news is Bad, Very Bad or Crisis. Stop pretending otherwise.

[fazersharp]

His average however isn't very good. Not least his forecast of instant disaster immediately following the referendum.

What you mean the £ isn't at a 31 year low against the $ ! Thank goodness :rolleyes


Here's the Bank of England 's forecast he was referring to. The news is Bad, Very Bad or Crisis. Stop pretending otherwise.

And there they are all in that BBC picture, 5 of the words that I said they always use.
  Could
forecast
think
scenarios
Different

Plus one more that I did not list because they did not use it in the conference but it is one that they also always use "trend"

[mtread]

But you've also missed out


Fall
Disruptive
Disorderly


Plus some lines


Still waiting for the positive Leave forecasts that suggest this is all wrong  :rolleyes

[nick crisp]

Still waiting for the positive Leave forecasts that suggest this is all wrong  :rolleyes

Forecasts and predictions are for Remainers who have nothing better to do. Leavers just want to get out and get on with running our country.

[VNA]

His average however isn't very good. Not least his forecast of instant disaster immediately following the referendum.

His forecast before the referendum for a LEAVE result was rougthly increased risk of a technical recession, a significant drop in the value of the pound and an increase in inflation.
So his forecast turned out to be correct.

[VNA]

So........ where's the Leave experts and their forecasts then?

Johnston and Gove.  They painted it on the side of a bus.  Since proven to be a lie.

[dazza]

So........ where's the Leave experts and their forecasts then?

Here's one for you to trash 
Fuck, was trying to stay out of this bullshit  :lol

[VNA]

From the London School of economics,  http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy...ty/#Author

Method a la Minford
There are basically two steps in Minford’s analysis. First, he assumes that feed from EU trade protectionism, prices paid by UK consumers for manufacturing and agricultural goods would fall by 10 per cent under ‘Britain Alone’. Second, he feeds this fall in trade costs into his ‘Liverpool model’ to come up with a GDP increase of 4 per cent.
The 10 per cent number does not come from looking at the actual level of tariffs, which are only around 3 per cent. Rather, it comes from looking at the differences in guesstimated producer price levels between the UK and some other countries using data that is 14 years out of date, and arguing that these higher prices are entirely due to EU trade barriers.
This is really far-fetched. Cross-country price differences are due to a number of factors, particularly different tastes and quality. For example, say Europeans put a higher premium on high-quality clothing compared with Americans. It will look like Europeans are paying more for their clothes, but in reality, the higher average prices simply reflect a different mix of purchases (Deaton, 2014). He ends up comparing apples with a bunch of Boris Johnson shaped bananas across countries.
Minford misunderstands the nature of regulations and product standards. The idea of the Single Market is to have common rules so that a product sold in one EU country can also be sold in any other. If there are 28 different sets of rules governing the sale of a good, it will be harder to sell these products across all EU countries. Minford sees the harmonisation of regulations as a pernicious plot by vested interests to raise prices. But playing by a common set of rules is what has helped increase trade and competition in the Single Market.
It is true that tougher European standards for product safety and quality keep out some trade. For example, if after Brexit the UK reduced the levels of safety in children’s toys to those sold in the Chinese mainland, the average price of children’s toys would surely fall. But this is because the safety standards would deteriorate – quality adjusted prices would not change much. It is hard to believe that parents would welcome this kind of saving.
How Minford defies the laws of gravityTrade flows between nations increase as the economic size and average wealth of each country’s grows, and decrease with rising costs of trade between them caused by import tariffs, transport costs and other trade barriers. This is an empirical regularity called the ‘gravity’ relationship and it is the statistical bedrock of modern trade models.
Minford uses a 1970s style trade model in which all firms in an industry everywhere in the world produce the same goods and competition is perfect. There is no product differentiation – a German-made car is identical to a Chinese-made car. Importantly, trade does not follow the gravity equation – everyone simply buys from the lowest cost producer.
As a consequence, after Brexit, the UK does not care about the tariff barriers exporters face in accessing the EU Single Market as they can sell as much as they like anywhere in the world. The fact that France is closer than Fiji essentially makes no difference in the Minford world: there is just one fictional world market into which all goods can be effortlessly sold.
If this sounds crazy, that’s because it is crazy. In reality, the UK will still continue to trade extensively with the EU as our closest geographical neighbours. It’s just that the higher trade barriers mean that we will do less of it.

[VNA]

When assesing Minford view you may wish to pay particular attention to;

Minford admits his model predicts that the policy would cause the ‘elimination’ of UK manufacturing and a large increase in wage inequality.

As I have said all along, it's us ordinary people that will pay the price of BREXIT.  And as we have seen some already have.
BREXIT is bonkers.