(11-06-21, 08:55 PM)agricola link Wrote: I don't see it that way. The production and infrastructure for those alternatives you mention are not in place in the volumes reqd to replace petrol/diesel, and no-one wants to pay for them. Some of those alternatives mean we will need to rely on other nations to supply and transport to us, meaning they will have us over a barrel. The world is unstable, and becoming more so as resources diminish and alternatives need to be sought. This is why the Chinese, Russians and others are expanding there spheres of influence into nations with yet untapped resources.
As for us being reliant on imports in the future, we've been "over the barrel" as you put it since the decline of coal/steam and it's growing see here https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environme...2016-08-15
Post 2030 the sale of petrol/diesel vehicles is banned, that includes trucks and vans anything with a combustion engine, hybrids by 2035 in the UK. Most of Europe by 2040 and all by 2050 this could be reduced still further, discussions are ongoing. Most of the world is doing much the same although from 2035 upto 2050 although that date is looking more and more like being reduced.
Manufactures are going hell for leather to develop the before mentioned fuel engines/power plants. All of them are currently available to varying levels around the world including the UK. Some more than others and for sometime in the case of biodiesel, Propane (LPG) and electric. Yes there will still be current petrol and diesel engines post 2030 but they will reduce year on year. Their sales are already declining significantly and will continue to do so, all the evidence is out there if you wish to look. The major oil companies are rapidly investing in these alternative fuels, most major investment houses (pensions etc) are either drastically reducing or no longer investing in fossil fuel or vehicle manufacturers who aren't developing alternative fuel engines. The race is on and unlike most other change, unleaded fuel, catalyst etc this change is being driven by money markets and legislation at the same time i.e. needs must. Bit like Covid vaccines and their unheard development speed, oh the race is most definitely on
Who knows how long it will take to remove all daily use petrol/diesel engines from the roads, my guess is not that long estimates put somewhere between 5 - 15 yrs. Yes there will still be weekend/holiday use of them but like bikes of the previous years what we are riding today will be classic, some already are! There fuel will carry a premium, eventually they'll have to be converted to run on other fuel or forced off the road.
This is coming and there's absolutely no choice or way of stopping it. Like the demise of horse/steam power, petrol/diesel as we know it will go the same way and at speed.
Later