BREXIT

[VNA]

So, what is the reality of where we are now?


It boils down to the Good Friday agreement.  That means there can be no hard customs border between Eire and Northern Ireland.


A hard Brexit, ie NO DEAL, would mean some sort of hard border in Northern Ireland.


The Prime Minister has accepted that parliament would take whatever action it could to block a NO DEAL BREXIT.  Frankly it is common sense.


So the minimum requirement for an agreement on BREXIT is a customs union.  Hence the EU’s backstop, and it’s insistence that you cannot leave the customs union without it’s agreement.  Ie to leave you have to come up with a solution to the impossible.


But the customs union only covers actual goods, the UK economy today is a services economy.  Further we would be a rule taker and unable to make our own trade deals around the world.


Which brings us back to, why the foc do we want to leave?  It makes no sense.


So A50 has to be extended.  I think the EU will reject June as parliament shows no signs of moving forwards even though the reality is that May and Corbyn are effectively in agreement.  They are basically faffing about trying to find ways to disagree in order to hold their parties together. 



So it looks like a one year extension.  That means EU elections.  These will effectively become a second referendum in the absence of an actual referendum.


There is a danger of course that extremists such as UKIP and Nigel’s new party could win the bulk of the seats.


At the same time, it is likely that the SNP in Scotland will win the bulk of the Scottish seats (six seats available).  If England goes with UKIP and Nigel, and Scotland goes with the SNP, then I can’t see how a second Independence referendum can be avoided.  I think it will be too tempting for the Greens and SNP to ignore.  So the extension could mean the end of Great Britain. 



So I come back to what I have been saying all along.  BREXIT is not possible.  And what possibilities there are, are absolutely and utterly undesirable. 



The only way out of this mess is to cancel article 50.


At the end of the day it’s not about whether you like the result of a referendum that should never have been held.  It’s about political and economic reality.