BREXIT

[VNA]

My prediction is still
1 Defeat for her deal in Parliament
2. Labour calls No Confidence vote in Parliament
3. She loses
4. Article 50 Postponed
All she's done is delay it until after the new year. Just watch.

You may be right, however what happens after that?

The DUP would have to vote against the government.  Even if the government is voted down, they have two weeks to call a second vote – two weeks to strike a deal with the DUP.


Even if the government fails, a general election throws the country into turmoil.  There is also a saying that Juncker always gets what he wants.  I think it would be extraordinary, but there is a the risk that the EU would refuse to suspend article 50 (I think they will be happy to do so) – this would then force MP’s to call an emergency vote to cancel article 50 therefore binning BREXIT.


I don’t see that working out in the long term.  It’s like the Tories changing the Prime Minister – new face – same problem.  A general election – new government – same problem. 


I think we are heading for a temporary cross-party government.  Or at least a cross party committee to solve BREXIT. 



So vote of No Confidence (won with Labour doing a deal with the DUP) – article 50 suspended – a cross party committee set up with the DUP holding a guarantee that the Good Friday Agreement will not be undermined in any shape or form.


And hopefully a New Deal based around single market membership.