BREXIT

[VNA]

The purely technical unbiased view is that we leave without a 'transitional period'. We immediately go onto what is called '3rd Country' terms and trade with the EU as an outside country. Because we haven't joined EFTA or the EEA we would be subject to Customs controls for freight and passengers at all border points. Under EU rules we haven't agreed terms with any other countries, so by 29 March we will have no trade agreements at all, with anybody. I doubt there has been much if any preparation for this.


That's just the Customs side. Similar issues with fishing, agricultural policy, medicines, air traffic, residency rights etc etc etc.


What the consequences of all that is, short term and long term, I'll let you think about.


Has anybody here read the current draft withdrawal agreement? I have, otherwise I'd be relying on other people's biased opinions, or what's written on the side of a bus.

OK. 
So, say the UK crashes out of the UK on the 29[sup]th[/sup] of march 2019.  And say I have a small to medium manufacturing company (I don’t) making say fuel pumps for the auto industry.  I’ve got a number of contracts and one very nice one with a French car maker.  So twice a week I send a big truck full of fuel pumps to France.  I have an ongoing order, x number of pumps per week, top quality and must be delivered on time.  So it’s pretty simple, I send the pumps as asked, and they transfer the funds once a month to the company accounts.  We’re in the single market so it’s no different, apart from the exchange rate, than selling in the UK.  So easy.
My company has had informal reassurance through the industry that No Deal will not happen.  We’ve been told May has given private assurances to the big industry bosses.  Nothing to worry about really.  Competition is stiff and margins are tight, but all is OK. 
Shock horror we crash out of the EU.
I send truck as usual on the 30[sup]th[/sup] of March.  I’ve done exactly as I’ve been doing for years.
So what will happen?