Sorry for the delayed reply guys, and thanks for all the input. I checked the chain, tightened and lubed it as it needed doing, and since then the issue has all but gone. I suspect there's still something I need to check out there, but my next task is to go over the exup and make sure that's good. While i'm at it i'll check a few other bits mentioned here. Just don't have much time spare between doing 70+ hours/week.
By the way, I hadn't done anything to the bike before this happened, and there hadn't been any rain either. It's in a locked shed at night, left for 10-12 hours between each 30min commute, hence the confusion about the cause.