Well, it's a bit of difficult one given that the damage done doesn't sound terrible - I think many would try to settle outside of insurance in such a case, to avoid loss of no claims, case dragging on etc. But if it comes to a battle, I think you've got a good case, better than 50/50. Perhaps it would be an idea to mention to your insurance co. that you think the driver showed undue care.
I would possibly even speak to a traffic copper to see what they think. If you could show undue care on the driver's part, I think you'd be in with the chance of a win, or at least, better than 50/50.
There are bike legal specialists who you might be able to contact to see what they think. I may be wrong, but you might be able to get an opinion from such without committing to hiring them. Maybe someone else here can recommend a suitable firm?