I'm with you on your guess bud, just an idea but is there any chance of you bypassing your side stand switch and seeing if it works that way, my understanding is with the side stand down the starting/ignition circuit is broken with it up its not so disconnect the side stand switch, connect the wires to make your bike think the stand is up and try from there. If she goes then you know what it is, the other option is of course going with your hunch and getting a new switch and replace it.
I'm not a technical bloke but will have a dabble and I learn from that, I am sure there are much more experienced people in the art of dabbling on here that could explain better.
Good luck