I think we need to understand that the 27 EU countries are now in control. Not because they want to be, but because May and her government are incompetent.
So, what will likely happen this evening (in my opinion) is that parliament will vote by a substantial majority to reject NO DEAL.
But that does not change reality. We will still be heading to NO DEAL. It is the current default position.
The next vote may be to extend article 50. If that is what happens it will go through with a majority.
That then goes to the EU. To get their agreement we will have to demonstrate that we have a way forward, or if we don’t have a way forward, we need to demonstrate that there is a plan that will lead to a way forward.
The 27 countries will need to agree the extension. If we can’t demonstrate a way forward, they will not grant an extension to article 50.
If that happens, your guess is as good as mine. The government may push May’s deal again (I kid you not) – they may drive us to a no deal. Or they may cancel article 50. And if not the parliament will have to force the government to cancel article 50.
If May still tries to run the clock down, the EU may grant an emergency extension of a few weeks to allow our parliament to kill BREXIT.
Remember what they say about Juncker. He might like a wee bevvy but he is one still of the smartest political operators in the world. What they say is – Juncker always gets what he wants.