I am biased admittedly, as Shakey is a local lad to me and a personal friend but I agree Kiyo is his greatest threat.
That said, part of me wouldn't mind if Kiyo took it this year, purely because it would make 2016 that much more interesting.
Know what you mean about the road racing Lew, those boys have massive kahooners and are amazing to watch.
Maybe I'll put a bet on both.