Date: 28-03-24  Time: 10:50 am

Author Topic: BREXIT  (Read 209529 times)

fazersharp

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #625 on: 30 November 2018, 01:26:00 pm »
Mark Carn-do-maths has quietly shelved his "forward guidance" briefs.Here is a list of words used by Carn-do and his side kicks in his news conference.
 Probability
Possibility
Likely
Assumption
Balance
Suggest
Forecast
Potential
Deviation
Dynamic
Could
Path
Scenario
Differing
Judge
Case study
Concrete
Think
Eventual
Adjustment
Leverage
Determination
adjustment
Path

All you have to do to be an economist is to always use these words - preferably all of them and you can talk for 30 mins without actually saying anything at all. Its like listening to a charlatan clairvoyant asking vague questions until they hit on something.  I have zero respect for economists especially when the BBC interview that convicted jailed fraudster Viki. 


 
« Last Edit: 30 November 2018, 01:32:56 pm by fazersharp »
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mtread

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #626 on: 30 November 2018, 01:54:52 pm »
He's got a doctorate in Economics for christsake. They don't dish those out for nothing.


There are no Leave forecasts because they know the results are very bad. Either that or they have trouble with 2+2. So they just criticise to deflect the truth.


Here's part of Carney's entry from Wikipedia. I suppose that's all lies too?  :b



''The epoch-making feature of his tenure as Governor of the Bank of Canada remains the decision to cut the overnight rate by 50 basis points in March 2008, only one month after his appointment. While the European Central Bank delivered a rate increase in July 2008, Carney anticipated the leveraged-loan crisis would trigger global contagion. When policy rates in Canada hit the effective lower-bound, the central bank combatted the crisis with the non-standard monetary tool: "conditional commitment" in April 2009 to hold the policy rate for at least one year, in a boost to domestic credit conditions and market confidence. Output and employment began to recover from mid-2009, in part thanks to monetary stimulus. The Canadian economy outperformed those of its G7 peers during the crisis, and Canada was the first G7 nation to have both its GDP and employment recover to pre-crisis level''


fazersharp

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #627 on: 30 November 2018, 02:12:02 pm »
Sounds just like when Gordon Brown took all the credit for the boom times.
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fazersharp

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #628 on: 30 November 2018, 02:24:16 pm »

There are no Leave forecasts because they know the results are very bad. Either that or they have trouble with 2+2. So they just criticise to deflect the truth.

If you listen to his news conference this week he doesn't say anything good or bad, the words I have posted are all from that conference, and- just like all economist speak they are  careful so they never say anything definite - just like a clairvoyant bulshitting giving vague responses that can cover everything.
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Hedgetrimmer

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #629 on: 30 November 2018, 02:34:01 pm »
He's got a doctorate in Economics for christsake. They don't dish those out for nothing.


There are no Leave forecasts because they know the results are very bad. Either that or they have trouble with 2+2. So they just criticise to deflect the truth.


Here's part of Carney's entry from Wikipedia. I suppose that's all lies too?  :b



''The epoch-making feature of his tenure as Governor of the Bank of Canada remains the decision to cut the overnight rate by 50 basis points in March 2008, only one month after his appointment. While the European Central Bank delivered a rate increase in July 2008, Carney anticipated the leveraged-loan crisis would trigger global contagion. When policy rates in Canada hit the effective lower-bound, the central bank combatted the crisis with the non-standard monetary tool: "conditional commitment" in April 2009 to hold the policy rate for at least one year, in a boost to domestic credit conditions and market confidence. Output and employment began to recover from mid-2009, in part thanks to monetary stimulus. The Canadian economy outperformed those of its G7 peers during the crisis, and Canada was the first G7 nation to have both its GDP and employment recover to pre-crisis level''


Even a broken clock is right twice a day  ;)


His average however isn't very good. Not least his forecast of instant disaster immediately following the referendum.

fazersharp

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #630 on: 30 November 2018, 02:38:45 pm »
He's got a doctorate in Economics for christsake. They don't dish those out for nothing.


There are no Leave forecasts because they know the results are very bad. Either that or they have trouble with 2+2. So they just criticise to deflect the truth.


Here's part of Carney's entry from Wikipedia. I suppose that's all lies too?  :b



''The epoch-making feature of his tenure as Governor of the Bank of Canada remains the decision to cut the overnight rate by 50 basis points in March 2008, only one month after his appointment. While the European Central Bank delivered a rate increase in July 2008, Carney anticipated the leveraged-loan crisis would trigger global contagion. When policy rates in Canada hit the effective lower-bound, the central bank combatted the crisis with the non-standard monetary tool: "conditional commitment" in April 2009 to hold the policy rate for at least one year, in a boost to domestic credit conditions and market confidence. Output and employment began to recover from mid-2009, in part thanks to monetary stimulus. The Canadian economy outperformed those of its G7 peers during the crisis, and Canada was the first G7 nation to have both its GDP and employment recover to pre-crisis level''


Even a broken clock is right twice a day  ;)


His average however isn't very good. Not least his forecast of instant disaster immediately following the referendum.
He said what he was told to just like Obama who gave the game away by saying "the UK would be back of the queue" - when an American would not say queue - they would of said "line". Scripted and written for him and not off the cuff.       
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mtread

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #631 on: 30 November 2018, 02:46:08 pm »
Quote
His average however isn't very good. Not least his forecast of instant disaster immediately following the referendum.

What you mean the £ isn't at a 31 year low against the $ ! Thank goodness :rolleyes


Here's the Bank of England 's forecast he was referring to. The news is Bad, Very Bad or Crisis. Stop pretending otherwise.


fazersharp

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #632 on: 30 November 2018, 02:58:21 pm »
Quote
His average however isn't very good. Not least his forecast of instant disaster immediately following the referendum.

What you mean the £ isn't at a 31 year low against the $ ! Thank goodness :rolleyes


Here's the Bank of England 's forecast he was referring to. The news is Bad, Very Bad or Crisis. Stop pretending otherwise.


And there they are all in that BBC picture, 5 of the words that I said they always use.
   Could
forecast
 think
 scenarios
 Different

 Plus one more that I did not list because they did not use it in the conference but it is one that they also always use "trend"
« Last Edit: 30 November 2018, 03:13:08 pm by fazersharp »
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mtread

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #633 on: 30 November 2018, 04:43:29 pm »
But you've also missed out


Fall
Disruptive
Disorderly


Plus some lines


Still waiting for the positive Leave forecasts that suggest this is all wrong  :rolleyes

Hedgetrimmer

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #634 on: 30 November 2018, 05:41:19 pm »



Still waiting for the positive Leave forecasts that suggest this is all wrong  :rolleyes


Forecasts and predictions are for Remainers who have nothing better to do. Leavers just want to get out and get on with running our country.

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #635 on: 30 November 2018, 06:10:30 pm »
Quote
His average however isn't very good. Not least his forecast of instant disaster immediately following the referendum.
His forecast before the referendum for a LEAVE result was rougthly increased risk of a technical recession, a significant drop in the value of the pound and an increase in inflation.
So his forecast turned out to be correct.

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #636 on: 30 November 2018, 06:13:32 pm »
Quote
So........ where's the Leave experts and their forecasts then?
Johnston and Gove.  They painted it on the side of a bus.  Since proven to be a lie.

dazza

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #637 on: 30 November 2018, 07:51:37 pm »
So........ where's the Leave experts and their forecasts then?
Here's one for you to trash  :D
Fuck, was trying to stay out of this bullshit  :lol


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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #638 on: 30 November 2018, 08:02:40 pm »
From the London School of economics,  http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-britain-alone-scenario-how-economists-for-brexit-defy-the-laws-of-gravity/#Author

Method a la Minford
There are basically two steps in Minford’s analysis. First, he assumes that feed from EU trade protectionism, prices paid by UK consumers for manufacturing and agricultural goods would fall by 10 per cent under ‘Britain Alone’. Second, he feeds this fall in trade costs into his ‘Liverpool model’ to come up with a GDP increase of 4 per cent.
The 10 per cent number does not come from looking at the actual level of tariffs, which are only around 3 per cent. Rather, it comes from looking at the differences in guesstimated producer price levels between the UK and some other countries using data that is 14 years out of date, and arguing that these higher prices are entirely due to EU trade barriers.
This is really far-fetched. Cross-country price differences are due to a number of factors, particularly different tastes and quality. For example, say Europeans put a higher premium on high-quality clothing compared with Americans. It will look like Europeans are paying more for their clothes, but in reality, the higher average prices simply reflect a different mix of purchases (Deaton, 2014). He ends up comparing apples with a bunch of Boris Johnson shaped bananas across countries.
Minford misunderstands the nature of regulations and product standards. The idea of the Single Market is to have common rules so that a product sold in one EU country can also be sold in any other. If there are 28 different sets of rules governing the sale of a good, it will be harder to sell these products across all EU countries. Minford sees the harmonisation of regulations as a pernicious plot by vested interests to raise prices. But playing by a common set of rules is what has helped increase trade and competition in the Single Market.
It is true that tougher European standards for product safety and quality keep out some trade. For example, if after Brexit the UK reduced the levels of safety in children’s toys to those sold in the Chinese mainland, the average price of children’s toys would surely fall. But this is because the safety standards would deteriorate – quality adjusted prices would not change much. It is hard to believe that parents would welcome this kind of saving.
How Minford defies the laws of gravityTrade flows between nations increase as the economic size and average wealth of each country’s grows, and decrease with rising costs of trade between them caused by import tariffs, transport costs and other trade barriers. This is an empirical regularity called the ‘gravity’ relationship and it is the statistical bedrock of modern trade models.
Minford uses a 1970s style trade model in which all firms in an industry everywhere in the world produce the same goods and competition is perfect. There is no product differentiation – a German-made car is identical to a Chinese-made car. Importantly, trade does not follow the gravity equation – everyone simply buys from the lowest cost producer.
As a consequence, after Brexit, the UK does not care about the tariff barriers exporters face in accessing the EU Single Market as they can sell as much as they like anywhere in the world. The fact that France is closer than Fiji essentially makes no difference in the Minford world: there is just one fictional world market into which all goods can be effortlessly sold.
If this sounds crazy, that’s because it is crazy. In reality, the UK will still continue to trade extensively with the EU as our closest geographical neighbours. It’s just that the higher trade barriers mean that we will do less of it.
« Last Edit: 30 November 2018, 08:03:13 pm by VNA »

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #639 on: 30 November 2018, 08:04:47 pm »
When assesing Minford view you may wish to pay particular attention to;
Quote
Minford admits his model predicts that the policy would cause the ‘elimination’ of UK manufacturing and a large increase in wage inequality.
As I have said all along, it's us ordinary people that will pay the price of BREXIT.  And as we have seen some already have.
BREXIT is bonkers.

mtread

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #640 on: 30 November 2018, 09:45:12 pm »
Quote
Forecasts and predictions are for Remainers who have nothing better to do. Leavers just want to get out and get on with running our country.
Leavers don't do forecasts and predictions because they believe 'getting back control' means we should all pay for it with more austerity.

Hedgetrimmer

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #641 on: 30 November 2018, 10:14:27 pm »


Leavers don't do forecasts and predictions because they believe 'getting back control' means we should all pay for it with more austerity.

Leavers just want to get out and get on with running our country.

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #642 on: 30 November 2018, 10:29:38 pm »
Quote
Quote from: mtread on Today at 09:45:12 PM<blockquote>
Leavers don't do forecasts and predictions because they believe 'getting back control' means we should all pay for it with more austerity.
</blockquote>
Quote from: Hedgetrimmer on Today at 12:36:36 PMLeavers just want to get out and get on with running our country.


Quote
Quote<blockquote>Minford admits his model predicts that the policy would cause the ‘elimination’ of UK manufacturing and a large increase in wage inequality.</blockquote>

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #643 on: 30 November 2018, 10:34:32 pm »
 There is another factor that Minford ignores.  Whilst he (wrongly LSE says) dismisses the importance of trading with your nearest partners, he ignores the increasing importance of trading with your nearest partners that an increasing awareness of global warming will bring.
 
Inevitably in the near future there will be a global move to reduce unnecessary transport and in particular the unnecessary transportation of goods.
 

mtread

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #644 on: 30 November 2018, 11:36:51 pm »
Anyway..... There won't be a 'No Deal Brexit'. From the end of March we'll remain aligned with the EU in some deal. Taking their instructions, paying our contribution. To borrow a phrase from elsewhere, 'You've lost, get over it'  :lol

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #645 on: 01 December 2018, 12:27:17 am »
 I just hope that, that deal is a temporary suspension of the march deadline.  A suspension of the deadline that will allow for article 50 eventually to be revoked.


Do you really want to follow the best minority economic view of Professor Patrick Minford, who chairs and leads the Eurosceptic Economists for Free Trade who advocated a NO DEAL BEXIT;


Quote
Minford admits his model predicts that the policy would cause the ‘elimination’ of UK manufacturing and a large increase in wage inequality.
Do you feel like you'll be a winner in a NO DEAL BREXIT?   

 

YamFazFan

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #646 on: 01 December 2018, 08:34:35 am »
So you're better informed, more independant minded and a greater expert on these matters than this Minford bloke? :rolleyes .




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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #647 on: 01 December 2018, 08:57:45 am »
You can’t assume Minford is impartial, as. Prof of Economics it is more than likely he has a philosophical angle , just like Keynes did and most others do. So his independence , and therefore information should be viewed in that light.. You might also question his analysis in relation to where his research funding comes  from - this is the BAT approach of giving researchers millions of pounds to ‘prove’ tobacco doesn’t cause cancer 🤣.
Never ever underestimate the Tory parties ability to connive, manipulate and cut deals to stay in power .

YamFazFan

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #648 on: 01 December 2018, 11:06:18 am »
You can’t assume Minford is impartial
....or that VNA is impartial.
Never ever underestimate the Tory parties ability to connive, manipulate and cut deals to stay in power .
....or Corbyn's ability to do so in order to get in power.

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Re: Just for VNA a brexit thread
« Reply #649 on: 01 December 2018, 12:10:02 pm »
Quote
So you're better informed, more independant minded and a greater expert on these matters than this Minford bloke? :rolleyes .

Ah I see nobody is allowed an opinion other than YamFazFan. :eek
 There are fundamental areas where I disagree with Minford.  For example why you would walk away from the EU single market (and it is a single market – it trades internally almost as one country) when it represents 25% of global GDP.  The argument is you do so in order to make independent deals with the remaining 75% of GDP.  But it’s spread across 168 countries right round the globe.  That's a shit load of Bureaucracy.



Another fundamental disagreement I have is…..  Well hopefully some day well get over BREXIT, because there is a far bigger global problem which makes squabbles over BREXIT seem somewhat insignificant, and that’s Global Warming.  We need to reduce or cease unenvironmentally friendly global trade.  For example, why is there New Zealand lamb in my supermarket, when sheep farming is a major industry in Scotland.  Exporting our lamb whilst importing New Zealand lamb is environmentally stupid – it’s big CO2 emissions for no gain.



Finally even if Minford is right about the UK becoming richer in a NO DEAL scenario, he agrees with those of us who wish to protect our manufacturing jobs (say for example Nissan, Toyota, Honda, Mini, Jaguar etc in the automotive industry) whom may walk in the event of a NO DEAL (remember they have had a personal reassurance from the PM that this will not happen).  Minford states that UK manufacturing will be eliminated.


So you have to ask yourself, is a Minford NO DEAL BREXIT really what you want.


So tell me YamFazFan do you want to see UK manufacturing eliminated?